Obusobozi bw’okukola emipiira mu nsi yonna bukyali bungi .
Alipoota y’ekibiina ekikola ku kukola emipiira egy’obutonde (ANRPC) ku nkomerero ya April yalongoosa ebisuubirwa mu kusimba n’okufulumya emipiira mu 2019. mu ngeri y’okusimba, ekitundu ekipya eky’okusimba ekibira kya kapiira kyatuuka ku ntikko mu 2012, era ekitundu kyonna eky’okusimba kyatuuka ku ntikko ya 12. 2 obukadde bwa hectares mu kitundu kya hectares mu {{3} kyokka, nga omuwendo gwa price gulina ebbeeyi y’omwaka.
Although the new rubber planting area has declined slightly in the past two years, the total planting area of rubber forests is still high. According to ANRPC's expected data, the planting area of ANPPC's major member countries will remain at around 12 million hectares this year. In recent years, rubber planting has begun to increase in low-latitude regions of South America and Africa driven by interest. The global rubber planting area agenda mu maaso n’okukula, era obusobozi bw’okukola emipiira mu nsi yonna bukyali ku mutindo gwa waggulu.
Okusinziira ku kusuubira kwa ANRPC olw’ekitundu ekisala amawanga agali mu mukago, ekitundu ekiggule mu 2019 kisuubirwa okutuuka ku 928.Hectares obukadde 99, okweyongera kwa 2.48%. Wadde nga ebbeeyi ya kapiira ntono, ekifo we baggulawo ekyagenda mu maaso n’okulinnya mu 2019 kifunye obuyambi obw’amaanyi mu kukola emipiira.
Ku luuyi olulala, enkosa y’ekintu kya El Niño ku kukola emipiira mu biseera eby’omu maaso ekyasaana okugenda mu maaso n’okufaayo. mu myaka ekitundu eky’okusala enzigule ne kyeyongera okukula, mu 2016, okutwalira awamu okufulumya kwakendeera olw’ebbugumu eritaggwaawo n’ekyeya mu bugwanjuba bwa Asia. mu 2019, amawanga g’obugwanjuba bwa Asiya gayinza nate okufuluma mu mbeera y’obudde eri amawanga agafaanagana, ekigenda okufuluma mu 2019, amawanga g’obuvanjuba bwa Asiya gayinza okuddamu okufuluma mu 2019.
According to the current data, the main member countries produced a total of 1,872,400 tons of rubber in the first two months, a decrease of 6.63% year-on-year. The impact of El Niño is evident. The first quarter is the off-season of rubber production. If the weather remains hot in the second and third quarters, the total output of major Southeast Asian countries is expected to decline this omwaka.
Thailand, Indonesia ne Malaysia ze zisinga okutunda emipiira ebweru. Mu myaka ebiri egiyise, okufulumya emipiira kweyongedde omwaka ku mwaka. naye okuyita mu kaweefube w’amawanga asatu mu 2018, obungi bw’ebintu ebifulumizibwa ebweru w’eggwanga bukendedde okutuuka ku10.125.59 ttani obukadde, okukendeera kwa 2.88%.
Omuwendo gwonna ogw'ebintu ebifulumizibwa ebweru wa kapiira mu mawanga asatu amanene agakola omwaka guno tegweyongera nnyo. mu biseera eby'omu maaso, okusinziira ku kakiiko ka kapiira ak'enjuyi essatu (ITRC) aka Thailand, Indonesia ne Malaysia, "Enteekateeka y'okutunda ebweru w'eggwanga ekugirwa" ejja kufulumizibwa okuva mu April okutuuka mu August{1} ewala omuwendo gw'ebintu ebifulumizibwa ebweru w'eggwanga gusuubirwa okukendeera 240, {3} 3} ekkomo ku 10. Yalagudde nti omugatte gwa kapiira ebweru w’eggwanga amawanga asatu amanene aga ANPC gagenda kusigala nga ga ttani obukadde 10 omwaka guno.
Ku ntandikwa ya 2019, ekitongole kya National Rubber Research Organization (IRSG) kyalagula nti obwetaavu bwa kapiira mu nsi yonna bwandiyongedde ebitundu 2.5% okutuuka ku ttani nga obukadde 30 omwaka guno, nga ku zino obwetaavu bwa kapiira obw’obutonde bwatuuka ku 14.2 obukadde bwa ttani, nga kino kyeyongedde ebitundu 2.6%. Okusinziira ku ndaba ya data, omutindo gw’okukula kw’obwetaavu bwa kapiira ogw’obutonde gukendedde bw’ogeraageranya n’omwaka oguwedde.
Embeera y'okukozesa terminal eriwo kati ekitundu kikakasa ebisuubirwa mu IRSG ku ntandikwa y'omwaka. olw'okutunda okubi kw'obutale bw'abaguzi obubiri obukulu mu China ne Amerika, amakolero g'emmotoka mu nsi yonna mu kiseera kino gayaniriza n'omuyaga ogw'okusisinkana mu kiseera kino nga gugenda mu maaso n'okusisinkana kwa pulodyusa omutono, nga chiduced perducted many- as major pulodyusa w'okusisinkana mu pulodyusa omutono, chilleded perducted perducted perducteds 1. ezikugira okutunda ebweru w’eggwanga, naye amakolero gaayo ag’omu nsi nago gasibye .
Mu mbeera y’okukendeera kw’okukula kw’obwetaavu n’obwetaavu, ICSG esuubira nti okuwaayo n’obwetaavu bujja kusigala nga businga kukwatagana omwaka guno. wabula, ebiwandiiko by’ensi yonna bikyali bingi . omupiira gukyali mu mutendera gwa destocking omwaka guno, era okusinziira ku busobozi bw’okufulumya obupiira obw’obutonde obusingako, puleesa egenda waggulu ku miwendo gya kapiira ekyali nnene nnyo.
B Obudde bw’awaka oba ensonga enkulu .
Mu myaka egiyise, China eyongedde okussaayo omwoyo ku kweyimirizaawo kwa kapiira, kale ekitundu ky’okusimba kisigadde ku mutindo gwa waggulu. wabula, Yunnan ne Hainan, ebitundu ebikulu ebikola kapiira mu China, bifunye diguli ez’enjawulo ez’ekyeya omwaka guno. kisuubirwa nti okukola amaka kujja kukendeera wansi w’ekitundu ky’okusimba ekiriwo kati.
Okusinziira ku ndowooza y’ebintu ebiyingizibwa mu ggwanga, okuva obungi bw’ebintu ebiyingizibwa mu ggwanga bwe bwatuuka ku bunene mu 2017, obungi bw’ebintu ebiyingizibwa mu ggwanga ebya kapiira eky’obutonde bukendedde. emu ku nsonga kwe kukendeera mu kukozesa terminal, ate endala eri nti abayingiza ebintu mu ggwanga basinga kutabula olw’okwewala omusolo n’ensonga endala. omupiira ogw’obutonde guyingizibwa wansi w’erinnya lya glue{{3} okuyingiza ebintu ebiyingizibwa mu ggwanga okukendeera okukendeera katono ku muwendo gw’ebintu ebiyingizibwa mu ggwanga okuva mu mwezi gwa April, okuva mu ggwanga okuva mu mwezi gw’okusatu okuva ku mwezi gw’okuyingiza ebintu mu ggwanga okuva mu mwezi gwa April, okuva mu ggwanga okuva mu mwezi gw’okusatu, okuva mu ggwanga okuva mu linnya lya granual, okuva mu ggwanga lya granual, okuva mu ggwanga erya granary 3 okuva ku mwezi gw’okuyingiza ebintu mu ggwanga okuva mu mwezi gwa 300, nga guyingizibwa mu ggwanga okuva mu ggwanga okuva mu linnya ly’omugatte gw’ebintu ebiyingizibwa mu ggwanga okuva mu ggwanga erya granary 1 okuva mu linnya ly’omugatte gw’ebintu ebiyingizibwa mu ggwanga okuva mu linnya lya granual, nga gava mu ggwanga okuva mu 100. 650,000 ttani, okukendeera kwa ttani 70,000 bw'ogeraageranya n'ekiseera kye kimu omwaka oguwedde.
Okugaba emipiira egy’obutonde mu ggwanga n’ensi yonna kweyongedde nnyo mu myaka egiyise. mu gyo, mu ngeri y’okufulumya ebintu mu ggwanga, China’s synthetic rubber production growth rate ranked first in the world, n’okukula kw’ebifulumizibwa ebikuŋŋaanyiziddwa mu 2018 kweyongera nate, ne kutuuka ku 7.1%.
Mu nsonga z’okuyingiza ebintu ebiyingizibwa mu ggwanga, omupiira ogw’obutonde (synthetic rubber) eyongedde omutindo gwagwo ogw’okuyingiza ebintu ku mutendera omupya olw’okwewala omusolo gw’abayingiza omusolo. mu 2018, omugatte gwa ttani obukadde 41 eza ttani za synthetic zayingizibwa mu ggwanga, nga ku zino okutabula kwa kapiira ak’obutonde ne synthetic rubber zaatuuka ku 2. 95 ttani obukadde 95. Okuva mu January okutuuka mu April w’omwaka guno, okuyingiza omupiira ogw’obutonde (synthetic rubber) gwali mu mbeera nnungi, era obungi bw’ebintu ebiyingizibwa mu ggwanga ebya kapiira ekikoleddwa mu ngeri ey’ekikugu byatuuka ku ttani obukadde 1.47, nga kino kyeyongedde ebitundu nga 8%.
Nga April 28th, enzirukanya ya Kasawo eya bulijjo yafulumya ekiwandiiko ku kugabanya "omupiira ogutabuse", nga kyetaagisa okunoonyereza okulungi ku kutabula kwa kapiira ak'obutonde n'akapiira akakolebwa. tekikyakkirizibwa kukozesa kapiira akakolebwa mu ngeri ey'ekikugu nga kapiira akatono akakolebwa ku ngulu ku nsonga ezikwatagana n'ensala ya customled ne customstred customstrest customstrest ne customstream y'omuti gwa customstream ku customstream y'omutimbagano ogukwatagana ne customstream customleds customsts the customstres the customstrest customsts. Ekiwandiiko ky’Ekiwandiiko. Oluvannyuma lw’okutegeera obwetaavu bw’ababikola okukendeeza ku misolo, bakyanywerera ku ndowooza y’okugoberera ennyo ekiwandiiko. okuva mu ndowooza y’okulungamya enkola, wayinza okubaawo okulinnyisa ebbeeyi ya kapiira ak’obutonde mu biseera eby’omu maaso.
Okusinziira ku mutendera gw’okugaba emipiira okutwalira awamu mu myezi ena egisooka, okweyongera kw’okugaba kwa kapiira akakolebwa kivuddeko okweyongera okutuufu mu kugaba kwa kapiira ak’awaka akatuufu. naye, oluvannyuma lw’okufulumya ekiwandiiko ekikwatagana ekya kapiira ak’omugatte, kyetaagisa okussa ennyo essira ku biwandiiko by’okuyingiza mu ggwanga ebya kasitooma ebya kapiira ow’obutonde ne mu biseera eby’omu maaso.
C Okukozesa wansi w’omugga si kirungi .
The growth rate of the domestic tire industry has gradually slowed down, and the cumulative production growth last year was only 1%. In 2019, the tire industry was affected by factors such as policies and overcapacity. For the first time in 20 years, production declined. From January to April this year, the cumulative production of tires decreased by 3.6% year-on-year.
Emipiira gy’omunda mu ggwanga egy’okutunda ebweru w’eggwanga gikoseddwa nnyo enkola ya Amerika ey’ebitanda bibiri ku nkomerero y’omwaka oguwedde ne Amerika ku ntandikwa y’omwaka guno. omwaka guno, obungi bw’emipiira egy’ekyuma kyonna n’egy’ekyuma ekifulumizibwa ebweru w’eggwanga kikendeezeddwa ku diguli ez’enjawulo. data y’okutunda ebweru w’eggwanga ey’okutwalira awamu eyakolebwa obulungi temporari 158.11, nga buli mwaka yeeyongedde ebitundu 2.49%.
Mu kiseera kino, ebikwata ku kutunda ebweru w’eggwanga tebinnaba kubikkulwa mwezi guno. kisuubirwa nti obungi bw’emipiira egy’omunda egy’ekiseera ekitono bukyagenda kukuuma enkulaakulana ezimu, naye obungi bw’ebintu ebifulumizibwa mu biseera eby’omu maaso mu mipiira gya Amerika tebulina ssuubi. okutwalira awamu, embeera y’okukola emipiira n’okutunda ebweru w’eggwanga si nnungi, amakolero g’emipiira gakoze mu kusoomoozebwa okusinga obunene mu myaka ekkumi egiyise {3}
Mu mwaka gwa 2018, amakolero g’emmotoka ag’omunda gayingira mu kiseera eky’obutiti eky’obutiti. obungi bw’okufulumya n’okutunda mu mwaka gwonna byalaga diguli ez’enjawulo ez’okukendeera, era ebika by’emmotoka eby’enjawulo nabyo byafuna okugobwa mu bungi mu China. okukendeera kw’okufulumya mmotoka n’okutunda omwaka guno kukyagenda mu maaso. okufulumya n’okutunda mu myezi ena egisooka nga 10 mu myezi ena egyasooka 10. 12.12% mu kulondako. Okutwalira awamu okusereba kw’eby’emmotoka tekuyamba kukola n’okutunda emipiira gy’awaka.
Nga okutwaliza awamu, obusobozi bw’okugabira abantu mu nsi yonna bumala, era obwetaavu bw’omugga wansi. okugaba okutwalira awamu n’obwetaavu bw’omwaka gwonna bikyali bitono nnyo. olw’ebintu ebingi n’obusobozi bw’okufulumya obw’amaanyi, okunyigirizibwa okw’okudda waggulu ku miwendo gya kapiira kujja kuba kwa waggulu mu biseera eby’omu maaso. wabula, okuva bwe kiri nti, enkola y’obudde ne kasitooma bigenda mu maaso n’okulinnya ebbeeyi ya kapiira okutuuka ku OSCill {3} mu kiseera ky’ekiseera ekimpi, eky’ekiseera eky’ekiseera eky’ekiseera eky’ekiseera eky’ekiseera eky’omu maaso eky’omuwendo gw’ebintu ebigenda mu maaso mu kiseera ekimpi, eky’omu maaso eky’omuwendo gw’ebintu eby’omu maaso, gugenda kugenda mu maaso n’okulinnya kwa kapiira ku bbeeyi ya kapiira {3} {3} {3} 1.
Mu bufunze, okusalawo kwaffe okutwalira awamu kwa bbanga ddene mu bbanga eggwanvu, naye wayinza okubaawo akabi k’okulinnya okw’amaanyi okw’ekiseera ekitono. embeera y’obudde ey’omu maaso, okuyingiza emipiira egy’omu maka egy’omunda, ebikwata ku kutunda emipiira ebweru w’eggwanga n’enkola z’omunda mu mawanga amanene mu mawanga g’obugwanjuba bwa Asiya bye bijja okuba ensonga enkulu eri enkyukakyuka ez’amaanyi mu miwendo gya kapiira, ezeetaaga okulondoolebwa ennyo.
D Okwekenenya enkola y’okulonda .
Okusinziira ku kutunda okw’ekiseera ekiwanvu okw’ekiseera ekiwanvu, naye wayinza okubaawo okulinnya okw’amaanyi okw’ekiseera ekitono mu kusalawo, okusinziira ku bbeeyi y’okuggalawo akatale nga May 31, enkola ezikwatagana zikolebwa bwe ziti:
Enkola ey’okukuuma: Okusinziira ku katale ak’ekiseera ekitono mu biseera eby’omu maaso, waliwo emikisa egimu egy’okulinnya. oyinza okulowooza ku kukwata ssente okumala akaseera, okulinda enkyukakyuka mu mbeera y’obudde mu Southeast Asia ne China’s mixed rubber import data. singa embeera y’obudde efuuka bulungi era data y’okuyingiza emipiira egy’omunda mu ggwanga ekendeera kitono, olwo oyinza okulowooza ku kutunda enkola y’okuyita waggulu wa target RU199 endagaano n’ensimbi z’omuwendo gw’ensimbi z’omuwendo gw’ensimbi eziweebwa omusolo gwa RUMELY....
Enkola ey’obukambwe: Osobola okukozesa enkola ya put okuzimba enkola y’okusaasaanya mu kitundu. oluvannyuma lw’okugwa okutono, okyayinza okufuna ssente entono oluvannyuma lw’omuwendo gw’ekiruubirirwa okulinnya, n’okwewala akabi ak’okulinnya okw’amaanyi okw’ekiseera ekitono.
Enkola eno erimu okugula RU1909 put option n’omuwendo gw’akeediimo gwa 11,750 yuan/ton n’okutunda RU1909 put option nga n’omuwendo gw’akeediimo ogw’emikono esatu guli 10,750 Yuan/Ton. enteekateeka ekwatibwa okumala ekiseera ekiwanvu (omuwendo 1 {{9} akatale ku myezi 3, {{10} ) ) {{11} {1, 3, {1, ) ) RU1909 ye 11,940 yuan / ttani, omuwendo gwa RU1909P11750 guli 483 yuan / ttani, omuwendo gwa RU1909P10750 guli 184 yuan / ton, enyingiza entuufu ekolebwa buli mugatte gw'enkola esaasaanidde ku put put nga 690 yuan. akabi k'omugerageranyo gw'omugerageranyo gw'omugerageranyo gw'omugerageranyo gw'omugerageranyo gw'omugerageranyo gw'omugerageranyo gwe guteekebwa ku muwendo gwa 690 yuan {23} 33} 33} Okwettanira. .
Ekigendererwa ekikulu eky’okuzimba enkola ya put option spread spread kwe kufuna omuwendo gw’obudde, era okuddamu kuli waggulu nga ebbeeyi enkulu egudde katono. ne bwe kiba nti ebbeeyi y’ekigendererwa elinnya nnyo, omuwendo omutono ogw’enyingiza ennywevu gusobola okufunibwa, era omukisa gw’amagoba okutwalira awamu munene nnyo.
Through the strategy closing profit curve under different time and price, it can be seen that when the price falls slightly, the maturity gain is obviously enhanced, and even if the target price rises sharply, it can still obtain a fixed income of 690 yuan when it expires. Overall, the longer the holding of the strategy portfolio, the greater the probability of gaining revenue. Although the maximum risk is controllable, if the price drops sharply in the short term, there will Still be a large loss. Ensonga emenyawo enkola eri kumpi 10,250 yuan/ton. n'olwekyo, ebbeeyi bw'egwa wansi wa 10,750 Yuan, kyetaaga okusinziira ku kibaddewo era ebijuliziddwa biyinza okulowoozebwako okusazibwamu.}
Mu ngeri y’omugatte, omuwendo gw’ekigendererwa bwe gukka nnyo, omuwendo ogukozesebwa enkola eno gujja kweyongera. kiteeberezebwa nti omulimu ogusinga obunene ogw’ensimbi mu buli kiseera ky’okukola enkola guba 45,000 Yuan. mu nsonga z’enyingiza, singa omuwendo ogugendererwa gulinnya oba gusigala nga tegukyuse, omusolo ogw’omwaka guli nga 6,.13%{{9} 10,500,500000/50000,5000/5, 13% {9} 13%} 13%} 13% {9} 13% {9} 13% {9} 13% {9} 13% {9} 13% {9} 13% {9} 13% {9} 13% {9} 13%, 13%, esigala nga tekyuka. Amakungula gali nga 28.36%.
Okulabula ku bulabe: Enkola z’okutunda zirina omugabo omunene ku muwendo, era waliwo akabi ak’okugoba ng’ebbeeyi y’ekigendererwa egudde nnyo mu bbanga ettono. ng’omuwendo gugwa wansi wa 11,250 Yuan/Ton, nsaba osseeyo essira ku nkozesa yo yennyini. singa omuwendo gugwa wansi wa RMB 10,750/Ton mu bbanga ettono, ekyetaagisa okutuuka ku ddaala eriyinza okutuuka ku 10,750/ton mu bbanga ettono, ekyetaagisa okutunuulira okutuuka ku muwendo gw’amazzi okusinziira ku muwendo gwa RMB 10,750/ton mu bbanga ettono, eky’okusobola okugwa wansi okutuuka ku muwendo gwa RMB 10,750/ton mu bbanga ettono, ekyetaagisa okugwa wansi okutuuka ku muwendo gwa RMB 10,750/ton mu bbanga ettono, 3}.